Is winning the Super Bowl all about luck?
I wanted to post a few final thoughts about the Super Bowl.
After having watched the playoffs and Sunday’s somewhat entertaining game (not very entertaining, but somewhat entertaining; seriously, why doesn’t anyone throw more than 8-yard passes anymore?), I concluded that any of the 12 teams that made the playoffs this season were very capable of winning the Super Bowl, save the Bengals, who started playing like crap right around the time my Halloween pumpkins turned into an elementary-school lunchroom delicacy.
Hell, after watching Sunday’s game, I concluded that even the Packers could’ve won it all. What if Aaron Rodgers completes his miracle comeback by hitting a wide-open Greg Jennings to beat Arizona? Is there a team between them and the Lombardi Trophy they couldn’t beat?
I mean, take the Saints. To win the Super Bowl, they had to have all these things happen:
1. The Bears had to beat the Vikings in overtime on the penultimate week of the regular season to even give the Saints a shot at homefield advantage.
2. After reaching the NFC title game, the Saints needed about 15 Vikings fumbles and a patented Brett Favre throw-one-across-my-body-in-the-most-critical-moment-of-the-game passes with the Vikes on the verge of kicking the game-winning FG to get to OT, then they needed a kicker who’d made like eight field goals in his career to drill a 40-yarder to win it.
3. In the Super Bowl, they went with an incredibly risky onside kick call and needed the ball to deflect off the helmet of Hank Baskett and to bounce in such a manner that they could recover in the scrum.
4. Nursing a 7-point lead, they needed Reggie Wayne to run a bad route and Peyton Manning to emulate Favre for a pick-six that sealed the deal.
Now, I’m not saying the Saints didn’t deserve to win. Far from it. They made all the plays and none of the critical mistakes their opponents kept making. But my point is, think off all the things that had to go right for the Saints to win it all. Every little thing had to fall into place.
Winning the Super Bowl has become like winning the NCAA basketball tourney or the World Series. It’s a confluence of luck and talent.
It’s not just limited to the Saints. Last season, the Steelers needed a miracle catch in the corner of the end zone to hold off a team that just a couple weeks prior to the playoffs was beaten by approximately 127 points against a team that didn’t even make the playoffs. The season before, the Giants beat THREE heavily-favored road teams and knocked off the only 18-0 team ever thanks in large part to a play in which their QB escaped 18 times and threw a prayer to a wide receiver that played most of his career ignominiously on special teams, who somehow pinned the ball against his helmet and held on despite being physically assaulted by a safety. Prior to that, the Colts had to overcome a huge deficit against the Patriots at home in the AFC title game and had everything go right for them in doing so. Prior to that, the Steelers won three road games in the playoffs and beat Seattle in a game refereed by Franco Harris, Terry Bradshaw, Rocky Bleier, Lynn Swann and Mean Joe Greene.
Even the Patriots’ run of three titles in four years, which was remarkable, was aided by some all-time great breaks.
It’s a crapshoot these days.
Not saying that the Super Bowl champion each year doesn’t deserve it. Just that I’m not sure how often the best team ever raises the Lombardi Trophy anymore. And that’s what parity brings. A situation in which it takes as much luck as skill to navigate the minefield of the postseason. A situation in which getting the right breaks at the right times is just as significant as making the right plays at the right times.
And part of me misses the old days, I’ll admit. Part of me misses knowing Joe Montana and the mighty 49ers are going to win, because, well, they were just too darn good to be defeated.
I would argue that winning two titles for any QB or any team now in a four- or five-year span is more of an accomplishment than winning four in six years like Bradshaw did or four in four in nine years like Montana. Teams just change too quickly.
Just an observation.
Perhaps next year the Packers’ luck will carry the day. Lord knows after all the playoff misfortunes they’ve suffered in the last decade-plus, they deserve it.
